Nuclear armed Japan?

Nuclear weapons in the hands of the unpredictable North Korean communists not only poses a serious threat to regional security, but also undermines the nonproliferation regime. Even before the dust begins to settle in the wake of the North Korean nuclear test, a question being frequently asked is: Who will be next to join the nuclear club?
Indeed, there is a long list of potential candidates. The International Atomic Energy Agency says that as many as 30 countries have the capability to build atomic weapons, in addition to the nine current nuclear powers.
At the top of the list is Japan, which maintains more than 40 tons of plutonium for use in energy production - a stockpile reportedly large enough to produce 3,000 to 5,000 nuclear weapons. Moreover, it has the technical capacity to build a formidable nuclear arsenal at short notice.

To the relief of its neighbors, however, the Japanese government has in the past assured them in public that it has no desire to develop nuclear weapons. While placing itself under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, since 1967 it has maintained what it calls three non-nuclear principles; a policy of not possessing nuclear weapons, not producing them, and not permitting their introduction into its territory.

But Japanese nationalist conservatives are slowly chipping away at the non-nuclear policy, demanding an open debate on nuclear armament as a security option, and thus putting South Korea and China somewhat ill at ease. Their demand comes across as even more ominous when it is seen as part of their ambition to make Japan what it used to be - a military power strong enough to challenge not only China and Russia, but also the United States.

True, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says his government will not launch a public debate on nuclear armament. But his remarks do not sound entirely credible, given what his foreign minister, Taro Aso, said earlier. Aso told a Diet committee that he saw no problem with discussing in public whether or not Japan should produce nuclear weapons.

The demand for a public debate on nuclear armament cannot be brushed aside as mere political sloganeering prompted by the North Korean nuclear test, and an attempt to appease the Japanese conservative constituency. It is a serious political issue to those who are seeking to turn Japan into a "normal state," a euphemism for an assertive military power, by rewriting its pacifist constitution.
Among the conservative hawks is Abe himself, who was quoted as saying before being elected to the post of prime minister last month, that it would pose no constitutional problem to possess nuclear weapons. He was also quoted as saying that Japan needed to arm itself with nuclear weapons and that it would take only a week to produce them.

If a nuclear-armed North Korea is intolerable to Japan, a nuclear-armed Japan would be equally intolerable to its neighbors. Should it decide to launch a nuclear weapons program, it would certainly set off a chain reaction of nuclear armament in the region, almost certainly forcing South Korea and Taiwan to follow suit.
What Japan needs to do is not debate arming itself with weapons of mass destruction, but join together with the United States and other stakeholder nations and put pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions. It also needs to allay the growing concern of its neighbors about Japan's suspicious nuclear stance by reaffirming its non-nuclear policy. For the prime minister and the foreign minister to make conflicting remarks will do nothing except confuse their neighbors.

For its part, the United States is required to demand that Japan faithfully honor the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. After all, isn't it entitled to make such a demand given that it is the provider of nuclear protection to Japan?